Moscow might yet force an ugly settlement and set a troubling precedent for aggression elsewhere. The Kremlin appears convinced that Russia has staying power. Russia’s economy has adapted to massive Western sanctions. It has revealed resolve and competence in the West that fiascoes in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya had obscured (though admittedly things might have been different had the U.S. The war has laid bare weaknesses in Russia’s military that operations in Syria (2015) and Ukraine (20) had disguised. Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, which seems on track, will dramatically shift the balance of force in Northern Europe, more than doubling the length of Russia’s borders with NATO states. It has breathed new purpose into a previously adrift NATO. It has turbo-charged Ukrainian nationalism and pushed Kyiv closer to Europe.
An offensive that was supposed to subjugate Ukraine, weaken the West, and strengthen the Kremlin has, up to now, done the opposite. Still, it was shocking, when Russian forces did roll in, that a nuclear-armed power in 2022 would seek to conquer a neighbour in an act of unprovoked aggression.īeyond the devastation in Ukraine, the war has cast a long shadow over global affairs.įor Russia, so far it has been disastrous.
He openly derided Ukrainian national identity and sovereignty. Putin seemed ever angrier at Kyiv’s refusal to bow to his will. True, Russia had attacked Ukraine in 2014, and in the spring of 2021 had staged a dress rehearsal for an invasion, building up forces on the frontier before sending them home. All the signs pointed to an assault, bar one: it seemed unthinkable. intelligence warned that Russia was preparing for all-out war. Russian President Vladimir Putin had massed almost 200,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders. Will he or won’t he? This time last year, that was the question.
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